Coronaspiracy! The Numbers

As of the moment I am writing this sentence, 75,991 Americans have officially died from COVID-19, directly. By the time I publish this, hundreds more will be dead. As of now 1.28 million Americans have been confirmed to have the disease.

There is a lot of disagreement surrounding these numbers, and there should be. No matter how you slice it, these numbers are complete bullshit. They’re 100% bogus. The reason they are bogus is one of the same reasons they are so high. We don’t have adequate testing and contact tracing in place. Those numbers only include people who have been lab-confirmed tested positive for COVID-19 and deaths that doctors deem were probable COVID-19 deaths, but didn’t have testing available to confirm.

I personally believe that the numbers are vastly under reported. I’ve read a lot of stuff from people who believe the numbers are being artificially inflated. First, I want to get into why I believe far more people are dying from COVID-19 than are being reported. Then, I’ll look at each reason I’ve heard for over reporting and see if they have any meat on their bones to pick at.

Most importantly, hardly anyone has been tested. America has tested roughly one percent of its population. Within that one percent, we have a 20% positivity rate, one in five people tested has shown positive. But they’re only testing people who present with severe symptoms and people who are exposed or at-risk, like health care workers or rich people.

But we’ve also been told that a lot of people who get it have mild to no symptoms. So it’s hard to say whether that 20% positivity rate would hold steady on a random test of the population. To know that, we’d actually need random tests of the general population.

For just a second, let’s assume that the one in five positivity rate is accurate. The current population of the United States is just over 331 million people. Twenty percent of 331 million is 66.2 million. That’s a lot bigger number than 1.28 million. But, of course, that’s just a possibility. That’s reasonably the high-end possibility at this point. There’s no reason to believe the number is quite that high until we see data. At the same time, until we have data, there’s no reason to believe it’s not that high. The only thing we know for sure right now is that we don’t know.

The fact that our numbers have plateaued for now doesn’t mean much. It doesn’t mean that the virus has slowed its spread. Because the number of tests per day have not increased. We’re testing roughly 150,000 people per day, consistently. The number of tests per day have plateaued, and the number of new confirmed cases per day have plateaued. Which tells us one thing, only. We’re still testing at about a 20% positivity rate.

So, if we are at 66 million infected and only 75,991 people have died, that’s a pretty decent mortality rate, right? That’s .11% mortality. That’s not bad. That’s comparable to the flu in an average year. Except it’s far more than 75,991 dead. Remember, the only people counted as COVID-19 deaths are confirmed cases and suspected cases, which are going to be the common symptoms we all know about.

But COVID kills in other ways. People with mild symptoms are dying from COVID related blood clots. Some people aren’t going to the hospital at all. They aren’t reporting their symptoms, they are dying at home. This is reflected in the excess mortality that began to spike as soon as COVID-19 hit our shores. These are COVID deaths, but aren’t being added to the official count.

Excess mortality is an increase in the overall number of deaths from all causes. Starting in March and continuing to skyrocket, the number of deaths over and above what is expected in an average year is increasing daily. We know that traffic accidents are down due to greatly reduced travel. A lot of people aren’t out and about getting themselves killed in various ways, so we should se some balance to the extra deaths from COVID. But we don’t. Instead we see an alarming number of extra dead people, over and above the official lab-confirmed COVID death count.

We know that heart attack deaths are up because people ignore their symptoms, terrified to go to the hospital. Heart attack deaths may also be up due to blood clots formed during a COVID-19 infection. COVID-19 is a clotting disorder as well as a respiratory disorder, evidence shows. They’ve been treating people with blood thinners with positive results. But these heart attack deaths won’t be counted as COVID-19 deaths. These stroke deaths won’t be counted as COVID-19 deaths. Because they won’t have a post-mortem test for the disease, and without that, it would be impossible to know if that condition was a COVID-19 death, or from other causes.

Domestic violence deaths are likely up right now. That’s a guess, on my part, but it only makes sense. Suicides are going to be up. You just have to think about the way the world is operating now vs the way we were a few months ago to start to pinpoint that types of deaths should be going up and which type should be going down.

But in the end, at any rate, one would think it would be pretty much a wash, and we’d see a small spike in excess deaths from this pesky new Coronavirus. But that’s not what we see. We see a huge spike in excess mortality. What is causing all that extra death, if not COVID-19?

Alright, so, we’ve got the constantly climbing excess mortality, a one percent test rate, and only counting positive tests as COVID-19 deaths. That’s what tells me the COVID deaths are being under reported. Now let’s look at some theories I’ve seen floated about why the count is being over reported.

Some people are claiming that flu deaths are down this year, and that’s because deaths that should be reported as flu deaths are actually being reported as COVID-19 deaths. But, if the flu numbers this year are lower than the numbers projected earlier this flu season, there’s actually a pretty good explanation for why that is. Because lower flu numbers this year should be expected. The flu season wasn’t over when a good portion of the world began to self-quarantine. Although the self-quarantine was intended to slow the spread of COVID-19, which it did, it also slowed the spread of influenza, which is far less contagious than COVID-19. The self-quarantine should have drastically lowered instances of flu-related death, and the numbers are, understandably, reflecting that.

However, I’m not sure the final tally for this flu season is official just yet. And the decrease in cases later in the flu season may be offset by the increased testing for influenza that started when COVID hit. Since they didn’t have COVID tests, they increased testing for influenza. If you had flu-like symptoms but tested negative for flu, then you’d get a COVID test, if available in your area. Testing available at participating hospitals, restrictions may apply.

Some people say that if you have a heart condition and you die, they will posthumously test you, and if you have COVID-19, that will be counted as a COVID death. Well, no. That’s not happening. I don’t even need to research that. Just think about it. You would need the cooperation of morticians across the country. A whole lot of them would be speaking out if that were happening. If we were testing all those dead bodies when we don’t even have enough testing supplies to increase the testing on our living population to an acceptable level.

So, no, they aren’t testing most people posthumously and adding them to the count. But for certain conditions, I think they should. COVID kills people with comorbidities at an elevated rate. COVID causes blood clots, which, in turn, lead to heart attacks and strokes. So, there’s a good chance that the person with the heart condition would have gone on living many more good years managing their condition had they not been struck with COVID. That is a COVID death, and they are not being counted.

And now Trump has latched onto another popular conspiracy theory, that hospitals are over-reporting COVID deaths to increase their funding, basically, accusing them of exploiting the CARE act. Again, for this to happen on a wide enough scale for it to affect the numbers, it would involve so very many people. Doctors, nurses, hospital administration. So many whistles would be blown internally at hospitals all across the country if this were happening.

So, it might look like I’ve just glossed over these theories and dismissed them out of hand with no research. That’s kind of true. But that’s because there is nothing to research. These are wild claims with no evidence to support them. To argue against something, I need something to argue against. I need some evidence to try to disprove. It’s just people alleging things may be happening with no evidence that anything they are saying is true.