Tag: sars-cov-2

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Coronaspiracy! The Numbers

As of the moment I am writing this sentence, 75,991 Americans have officially died from COVID-19, directly. By the time I publish this, hundreds more will be dead. As of now 1.28 million Americans have been confirmed to have the disease.

There is a lot of disagreement surrounding these numbers, and there should be. No matter how you slice it, these numbers are complete bullshit. They’re 100% bogus. The reason they are bogus is one of the same reasons they are so high. We don’t have adequate testing and contact tracing in place. Those numbers only include people who have been lab-confirmed tested positive for COVID-19 and deaths that doctors deem were probable COVID-19 deaths, but didn’t have testing available to confirm.

I personally believe that the numbers are vastly under reported. I’ve read a lot of stuff from people who believe the numbers are being artificially inflated. First, I want to get into why I believe far more people are dying from COVID-19 than are being reported. Then, I’ll look at each reason I’ve heard for over reporting and see if they have any meat on their bones to pick at.

Most importantly, hardly anyone has been tested. America has tested roughly one percent of its population. Within that one percent, we have a 20% positivity rate, one in five people tested has shown positive. But they’re only testing people who present with severe symptoms and people who are exposed or at-risk, like health care workers or rich people.

But we’ve also been told that a lot of people who get it have mild to no symptoms. So it’s hard to say whether that 20% positivity rate would hold steady on a random test of the population. To know that, we’d actually need random tests of the general population.

For just a second, let’s assume that the one in five positivity rate is accurate. The current population of the United States is just over 331 million people. Twenty percent of 331 million is 66.2 million. That’s a lot bigger number than 1.28 million. But, of course, that’s just a possibility. That’s reasonably the high-end possibility at this point. There’s no reason to believe the number is quite that high until we see data. At the same time, until we have data, there’s no reason to believe it’s not that high. The only thing we know for sure right now is that we don’t know.

The fact that our numbers have plateaued for now doesn’t mean much. It doesn’t mean that the virus has slowed its spread. Because the number of tests per day have not increased. We’re testing roughly 150,000 people per day, consistently. The number of tests per day have plateaued, and the number of new confirmed cases per day have plateaued. Which tells us one thing, only. We’re still testing at about a 20% positivity rate.

So, if we are at 66 million infected and only 75,991 people have died, that’s a pretty decent mortality rate, right? That’s .11% mortality. That’s not bad. That’s comparable to the flu in an average year. Except it’s far more than 75,991 dead. Remember, the only people counted as COVID-19 deaths are confirmed cases and suspected cases, which are going to be the common symptoms we all know about.

But COVID kills in other ways. People with mild symptoms are dying from COVID related blood clots. Some people aren’t going to the hospital at all. They aren’t reporting their symptoms, they are dying at home. This is reflected in the excess mortality that began to spike as soon as COVID-19 hit our shores. These are COVID deaths, but aren’t being added to the official count.

Excess mortality is an increase in the overall number of deaths from all causes. Starting in March and continuing to skyrocket, the number of deaths over and above what is expected in an average year is increasing daily. We know that traffic accidents are down due to greatly reduced travel. A lot of people aren’t out and about getting themselves killed in various ways, so we should se some balance to the extra deaths from COVID. But we don’t. Instead we see an alarming number of extra dead people, over and above the official lab-confirmed COVID death count.

We know that heart attack deaths are up because people ignore their symptoms, terrified to go to the hospital. Heart attack deaths may also be up due to blood clots formed during a COVID-19 infection. COVID-19 is a clotting disorder as well as a respiratory disorder, evidence shows. They’ve been treating people with blood thinners with positive results. But these heart attack deaths won’t be counted as COVID-19 deaths. These stroke deaths won’t be counted as COVID-19 deaths. Because they won’t have a post-mortem test for the disease, and without that, it would be impossible to know if that condition was a COVID-19 death, or from other causes.

Domestic violence deaths are likely up right now. That’s a guess, on my part, but it only makes sense. Suicides are going to be up. You just have to think about the way the world is operating now vs the way we were a few months ago to start to pinpoint that types of deaths should be going up and which type should be going down.

But in the end, at any rate, one would think it would be pretty much a wash, and we’d see a small spike in excess deaths from this pesky new Coronavirus. But that’s not what we see. We see a huge spike in excess mortality. What is causing all that extra death, if not COVID-19?

Alright, so, we’ve got the constantly climbing excess mortality, a one percent test rate, and only counting positive tests as COVID-19 deaths. That’s what tells me the COVID deaths are being under reported. Now let’s look at some theories I’ve seen floated about why the count is being over reported.

Some people are claiming that flu deaths are down this year, and that’s because deaths that should be reported as flu deaths are actually being reported as COVID-19 deaths. But, if the flu numbers this year are lower than the numbers projected earlier this flu season, there’s actually a pretty good explanation for why that is. Because lower flu numbers this year should be expected. The flu season wasn’t over when a good portion of the world began to self-quarantine. Although the self-quarantine was intended to slow the spread of COVID-19, which it did, it also slowed the spread of influenza, which is far less contagious than COVID-19. The self-quarantine should have drastically lowered instances of flu-related death, and the numbers are, understandably, reflecting that.

However, I’m not sure the final tally for this flu season is official just yet. And the decrease in cases later in the flu season may be offset by the increased testing for influenza that started when COVID hit. Since they didn’t have COVID tests, they increased testing for influenza. If you had flu-like symptoms but tested negative for flu, then you’d get a COVID test, if available in your area. Testing available at participating hospitals, restrictions may apply.

Some people say that if you have a heart condition and you die, they will posthumously test you, and if you have COVID-19, that will be counted as a COVID death. Well, no. That’s not happening. I don’t even need to research that. Just think about it. You would need the cooperation of morticians across the country. A whole lot of them would be speaking out if that were happening. If we were testing all those dead bodies when we don’t even have enough testing supplies to increase the testing on our living population to an acceptable level.

So, no, they aren’t testing most people posthumously and adding them to the count. But for certain conditions, I think they should. COVID kills people with comorbidities at an elevated rate. COVID causes blood clots, which, in turn, lead to heart attacks and strokes. So, there’s a good chance that the person with the heart condition would have gone on living many more good years managing their condition had they not been struck with COVID. That is a COVID death, and they are not being counted.

And now Trump has latched onto another popular conspiracy theory, that hospitals are over-reporting COVID deaths to increase their funding, basically, accusing them of exploiting the CARE act. Again, for this to happen on a wide enough scale for it to affect the numbers, it would involve so very many people. Doctors, nurses, hospital administration. So many whistles would be blown internally at hospitals all across the country if this were happening.

So, it might look like I’ve just glossed over these theories and dismissed them out of hand with no research. That’s kind of true. But that’s because there is nothing to research. These are wild claims with no evidence to support them. To argue against something, I need something to argue against. I need some evidence to try to disprove. It’s just people alleging things may be happening with no evidence that anything they are saying is true.

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Coronaspiracy! Introduction

There are a whole lot of conspiracy theories circulating about the coronavirus. There are so many different things to address that trying to squeeze them all into one blog would be a tedious endeavor, so I’m going to do this in parts and give each piece of the puzzle the thorough examination it requires.

One thing is becoming crystal clear as time passes and evidence mounts: Some of the conspiracy theories have truth tangled up in them. There is definitely something shady going on. There are multiple cover-ups, and seemingly baffling decisions by world leaders, and I don’t mean Trump. Trump knows nothing and he is not now, nor has he ever been a world leader. I would say Trump is just as clueless as the rest of us, but it’s painfully clear he is far more clueless than most of us. I do mean the American Government. I do mean China.  We’ll get into specifics later.

There are multiple things we need to examine when looking at the current COVID-19 outbreak and the response, or lack of response, to it. They are all pieces of the same puzzle. They all fit together somehow and form a picture, or a story. I don’t claim to know what that picture is. I don’t know the story, and I don’t expect to solve this. I’m just some guy, okay?

Someone will solve this, and then it will all click. We’ll know it when we see it. I’ve read a whole lot from people who think they’ve got it all solved, but I don’t think I’ve seen the truth yet. I know I for sure don’t believe that there is a signal embedded in 5G which will activate a chip we all have injected unknowingly through a mandated vaccine to turn us all into mindless automatons.  That’s not the kind of thing I’m going to be focused on here. I’m not going to focus on any kind of theory about what exactly is going on. For now, I just want to examine the individual pieces.

Full disclosure: I am not an epidemiologist. I’m not a virologist. I am not a microbiologist. I’m not a biologist of any kind. I’m not even a scientist. I’m not a doctor. What I am is a writer, and a researcher. My day job relies heavily on research. I spend my days at work finding, aggregating, and analyzing data until I have a clear picture of what’s going on.

One thing we’ll be looking at is the numbers, the data, the reporting, total numbers of cases, total death count, mortality rate of COVID-19 vs. Influenza in any given year, with special attention given to the 2020 flu season. We’ll be looking at the claims that the numbers are too low, and we’ll be looking at claims that the numbers are inflated.

Another thing we’ll be looking at is the origin of SARS-CoV-2. Top epidemiologists claim that it couldn’t have come from a lab. That statement, on it’s own, is suspicious. Scientists don’t usually speak so definitively, and  when they do, it’s a red flag. You can always trust the science. You cannot always trust a scientist, or even a group of them. I don’t want to come off like some kind of climate denier. My point is that the data is out there to look at.

I’m going to fully examine the response, or lack of response of the American Government concerning testing. This lockdown was supposed to be temporary while we got testing measures in place. That hasn’t happened. Our government keeps giving us bogus answers why while other countries seemingly have testing under control.

Another piece of the puzzle is the confusion around the medicines and treatment. There is some really suspicious stuff happening with Hydroxychloroquine and Remdesivir.

We’ll be looking at strange deaths that may or may not be coincidence.

And by the time I’m finished examining all those pieces, I’m sure I will have found more pieces to look at.  I can’t stop falling down this rabbit hole, and it keeps looking curiouser and curiouser …

Posted on

Coronaspiracy! Introduction

Coronaspiracy!

There are a whole lot of conspiracy theories circulating about the coronavirus. There are so many different things to address that trying to squeeze them all into one blog would be a tedious endeavor, so I’m going to do this in parts and give each piece of the puzzle the thorough examination it requires.

One thing is becoming crystal clear as time passes and evidence mounts: Some of the conspiracy theories have truth tangled up in them. There is definitely something shady going on. There are multiple cover-ups, and seemingly baffling decisions by world leaders, and I don’t mean Trump. Trump knows nothing and he is not now, nor has he ever been a world leader. I would say Trump is just as clueless as the rest of us, but it’s painfully clear he is far more clueless than most of us. I do mean the American Government. I do mean China. We’ll get into specifics later.

There are multiple things we need to examine when looking at the current COVID-19 outbreak and the response, or lack of response, to it. They are all pieces of the same puzzle. They all fit together somehow and form a picture, or a story. I don’t claim to know what that picture is. I don’t know the story, and I don’t expect to solve this. I’m just some guy, okay?

Someone will solve this, and then it will all click. We’ll know it when we see it. I’ve read a whole lot from people who think they’ve got it all solved, but I don’t think I’ve seen the truth yet. I know I for sure don’t believe that there is a signal embedded in 5G which will activate a chip we all have injected unknowingly through a mandated vaccine to turn us all into mindless automatons. That’s not the kind of thing I’m going to be focused on here. I’m not going to focus on any kind of theory about what exactly is going on. For now, I just want to examine the individual pieces.

Full disclosure: I am not an epidemiologist. I’m not a virologist. I am not a microbiologist. I’m not a biologist of any kind. I’m not even a scientist. I’m not a doctor. What I am is a writer, and a researcher. My day job relies heavily on research. I spend my days at work finding, aggregating, and analyzing data until I have a clear picture of what’s going on.

One thing we’ll be looking at is the numbers, the data, the reporting, total numbers of cases, total death count, mortality rate of COVID-19 vs. Influenza in any given year, with special attention given to the 2020 flu season. We’ll be looking at the claims that the numbers are too low, and we’ll be looking at claims that the numbers are inflated.

Another thing we’ll be looking at is the origin of SARS-CoV-2. Top epidemiologists claim that it couldn’t have come from a lab. That statement, on it’s own, is suspicious. Scientists don’t usually speak so definitively, and when they do, it’s a red flag. You can always trust the science. You cannot always trust a scientist, or even a group of them. I don’t want to come off like some kind of climate denier. My point is that the data is out there to look at.

I’m going to fully examine the response, or lack of response of the American Government concerning testing. This lockdown was supposed to be temporary while we got testing measures in place. That hasn’t happened. Our government keeps giving us bogus answers why while other countries seemingly have testing under control.

Another piece of the puzzle is the confusion around the medicines and treatment. There is some really suspicious stuff happening with Hydroxychloroquine and Remdesivir.

We’ll be looking at strange deaths that may or may not be coincidence.

And by the time I’m finished examining all those pieces, I’m sure I will have found more pieces to look at. I can’t stop falling down this rabbit hole, and it keeps looking curiouser and curiouser …

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Resistance is Futile

The virus is real. The virus is here. It is highly contagious and potentially deadly. I think we can debate about the severity and the origins of the virus later, or, we could debate it now, but while staying the hell away from each other and cutting off this thing’s lifeline.

Okay, so, it’s easy for me to have that opinion. I’m lucky. Kind of. Ish. I’ve kept my job. Kind of. Ish. My pay has actually been slashed pretty badly. Commission has been cancelled for April and May so I’m going to be getting base pay only. Okay, yeah, I know a lot of people only get base pay and I was one of them for a very long time, and I’m lucky to have gotten anything above and beyond that. But I have been getting paid above and beyond my base pay and I’ve grown accustomed to a new comfort level. The stimulus covers that for this month, so I’m not feeling it yet.  But I’m lucky to have kept my job and gained the flexibility to do it from home, which is something I’ve been lobbying for to management for the past four years, anyway.

But the immediate lifestyle adjustments? Fuck, man. This is heaven. Sequestration is magical. I have a valid reason now for telling people to stay the fuck away from me when before I was just an asshole. I never had any desire to go anywhere anyway — and now I have the perfect excuse, and zero guilt. It’s fucking fantastic.

Okay, so, I like the lockdown. It’s not hard for me. I’m working from home, which is perfection. I want my commission pay back, my performance-based earnings, but aside from that, we can keep this lockdown going for everyone capable of working remotely for just as long as … well, forever. We can just keep this up forever.  

I don’t miss anything.  I don’t miss eating out. I don’t miss going out. In fact, I just had to go out, and it was sheer hell. I needed a VGA cable immediately, so I ordered one from Best Buy for curbside pickup. Traffic is fucking stupid. Fucking assholes everywhere. Nobody at Best Buy was wearing a mask or gloves, and they’re walking up to customers’ cars handing them merchandise, talking to each other in close quarters.  The guy who handed me my purchase weighed at least four hundred pounds. If he gets this virus, he’s pretty likely dead. This thing isn’t kind to the morbidly obese. Unfortunately, most of central Indiana is morbidly obese.

Okay, so, all cards on the table, I have ulterior motives. I like things shut down. So, of course I’m going to champion this course of action. But I also just think it’s the right thing … nay, the ONLY thing to do right now. The death toll will likely be at or very near 45,000 by the time I post this, and it is climbing steeply on a daily basis. And that’s with all of the extreme social distancing most of us are practicing right now. If we hadn’t done this, if we hadn’t shut down, we’d be over 200,000 deaths, easy, and it would be fucking chaos out there. Hospitals would be beyond capacity, mayhem would ensue. I have no proof of that, it’s just what I think. I can’t prove something that I think would have happened under different circumstances.

I’m not terrified of this thing. I’m being respectfully cautious. This is a formidable enemy. My goal is to not get it, to avoid it completely. That way I don’t roll the immune system dice on this disease at all, and I maintain a zero fault status in the spread of the virus. If I can pull that off, that will be a perfect game, I win. But this thing is highly contagious, and it is in my city, and it is inside far more people than the daily news numbers show because hardly anyone is being tested. Also, a lot of people get it, and they are just fine. If I get it, I will likely be okay. But, that’s not a guarantee. There is a risk. People say the mainstream media is collectively sensationalizing this. Well, of course they are, in their way. Of course they’re playing it up for ratings, that’s what they do.  

But I don’t think they are making it sound worse than it is. I was watching a news broadcast and they said that eighty-six percent of the people under fifty who died of COVID-19 had an underlying health condition such as an autoimmune disorder, obesity, diabetes, high-blood pressure, asthma, or being a smoker. First of all, those are all pretty common. That’s a lot of at-risk people. But second, that’s what they did say. Eighty-six percent of those under fifty who died had an underlying health condition. But what they didn’t say, and what I heard was this: Fourteen percent of the people under fifty who died of COVID-19 did NOT have an underlying health condition. That sounds fucking scary.  Yes, that is still a small number. Most of the people who die from COVID-19 are over eighty years of age. So, the percentage of people who died who are under fifty is low, and it’s fourteen percent of that number … but still. That’s otherwise healthy young people with no underlying health conditions who are dying. Greater risk for the elderly doesn’t equal zero risk for the young. That’s not how math or statistics work.  

I’ve watched videos online from real people. Nurses on the front lines in the hardest hit cities describing chaotic and dangerous conditions in hospitals. People who got the disease pretty badly, but recovered, recounting their terrifying near-death experiences. Yes, a lot of people have a sniffle and a cough. Yes, some people remain asymptomatic throughout the life of their infection, remaining symptom free, but still allowing the virus to replicate in their bodies so they can spread it. But this thing just slaps the fuck out of some people, and sometimes kills them, for no reason. Not because they’re old, or sick, or have an otherwise compromised immune system, but they’re just simply unlucky. I mean, maybe there’s something we don’t know. Perhaps they all have something in common, some underlying factor that hasn’t been identified as a risk. That’s surely possible. But still — do you have it, this factor? Do I? 

But fear of getting infected isn’t the main reason to distance and hunker down.

We should stay locked down and we should try our best not to spread it because it’s extremely contagious, and there is a pretty large section of our society, who, for various reasons, really shouldn’t be put into battle with this virus. A lot of them don’t have a chance, and we, as a society, need to do the right fucking thing and keep this bug as far away from them as we can. And if caring about the sick and elderly is outside of your capacity, just know that you aren’t safe, either. It could kill you, too. Fourteen percent of the people under fifty who died from COVID-19 did not have an underlying medical condition or compromised immune system. I’m sure they all thought they would be fine.

I have learned the following by reading articles written by experts in the field.

There are eight strains of SARS-CoV-2 circulating the globe right now that cause the disease COVID-19. No one strain is deadlier than another, they are all very similar to each other. SARS-CoV-2 is not likely to rapidly mutate and go airborne or get into the water supply. Its current method of transmission from human to human is so effective it has no immediate need to try to adapt or evolve. If and when it does need to evolve to try to bypass our eventual vaccine, it will take it a while. Coronavirus evolves, or mutates, at a slow rate, about four times slower than influenza.

I should be citing this stuff, but this is a blog, not a peer-reviewed paper. This isn’t shit I’ve discovered through testing and examination,  and I’m not trying to formulate my own hypothesis. I’m no expert in any of this, I’m just repeating shit I’ve found from articles that were well-sourced, and anyone can find them by Googling this stuff and seeing where I found it. But I digress, as I am wont to do.  Anyway, more science facts.

SARS-CoV-2 spreads from human to human in both large droplets and aerosol that exit the body during a cough, sneeze, panting, heavy breathing, etc. Any method that would allow moisture to escape the mouth on the breath. The virus can hang suspended in mist for up to three hours and remain active. The virus can live on paper and cardboard for up to 24 hours, and can live for up to 72 hours on plastic, stainless steel, and other smooth shiny surfaces.

So, on a relatively humid day, and, I know, how many of those are we going to see in mid-Spring, right? On a relatively humid day, an infected person sneezes. That infected aerosol can join with the water already in the air, and just float around ready to be breathed in for up to three hours. So, sure, stay six feet away, but if you move into a space someone else was just standing, you’re now breathing in what they just breathed out.

I don’t care who says what about masks.  I don’t need someone to explain to me how and why masks work. I get that the virus is small and can pass through very small openings and to be fully effective a mask would have to be rated to work against particles as small as the virus, which in this case is N-95. But I also understand that if you’re sick and you cough and you’re wearing a piece of cloth over your face, you’re going to greatly decrease the chances that you’re going to spread the virus. Yes, small aerosols will make it through, but a lot of the germs will be caught and never enter the atmosphere. So, yeah, masks are prudent. Any of us could have it, and we should try not to spread it in case we do.

I am lucky and I get to stay in my house. I don’t know what lies I’d be telling myself if I had to go out in the world every day like nothing has changed and do a thankless job. Everyone still out in the world and not practicing social distancing will probably get this. I may get this, despite my best efforts. Most of us will be okay. Some of us won’t. 

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Resistance is Futile

The virus is real. The virus is here. It is highly contagious and potentially deadly. I think we can debate about the severity and the origins of the virus later, or, we could debate it now, but while staying the hell away from each other and cutting off this thing’s lifeline.

Okay, so, it’s easy for me to have that opinion. I’m lucky. Kind of. Ish. I’ve kept my job. Kind of. Ish. My pay has actually been slashed pretty badly. Commission has been cancelled for April and May so I’m going to be getting base pay only. Okay, yeah, I know a lot of people only get base pay and I was one of them for a very long time, and I’m lucky to have gotten anything above and beyond that. But I have been getting paid above and beyond my base pay and I’ve grown accustomed to a new comfort level. The stimulus covers that for this month, so I’m not feeling it yet.  But I’m lucky to have kept my job and gained the flexibility to do it from home, which is something I’ve been lobbying for to management for the past four years, anyway.

But the immediate lifestyle adjustments? Fuck, man. This is heaven. Sequestration is magical. I have a valid reason now for telling people to stay the fuck away from me when before I was just an asshole. I never had any desire to go anywhere anyway — and now I have the perfect excuse, and zero guilt. It’s fucking fantastic.

Okay, so, I like the lockdown. It’s not hard for me. I’m working from home, which is perfection. I want my commission pay back, my performance-based earnings, but aside from that, we can keep this lockdown going for everyone capable of working remotely for just as long as … well, forever. We can just keep this up forever.  

I don’t miss anything.  I don’t miss eating out. I don’t miss going out. In fact, I just had to go out, and it was sheer hell. I needed a VGA cable immediately, so I ordered one from Best Buy for curbside pickup. Traffic is fucking stupid. Fucking assholes everywhere. Nobody at Best Buy was wearing a mask or gloves, and they’re walking up to customers’ cars handing them merchandise, talking to each other in close quarters.  The guy who handed me my purchase weighed at least four hundred pounds. If he gets this virus, he’s pretty likely dead. This thing isn’t kind to the morbidly obese. Unfortunately, most of central Indiana is morbidly obese.

Okay, so, all cards on the table, I have ulterior motives. I like things shut down. So, of course I’m going to champion this course of action. But I also just think it’s the right thing … nay, the ONLY thing to do right now. The death toll will likely be at or very near 45,000 by the time I post this, and it is climbing steeply on a daily basis. And that’s with all of the extreme social distancing most of us are practicing right now. If we hadn’t done this, if we hadn’t shut down, we’d be over 200,000 deaths, easy, and it would be fucking chaos out there. Hospitals would be beyond capacity, mayhem would ensue. I have no proof of that, it’s just what I think. I can’t prove something that I think would have happened under different circumstances.

I’m not terrified of this thing. I’m being respectfully cautious. This is a formidable enemy. My goal is to not get it, to avoid it completely. That way I don’t roll the immune system dice on this disease at all, and I maintain a zero fault status in the spread of the virus. If I can pull that off, that will be a perfect game, I win. But this thing is highly contagious, and it is in my city, and it is inside far more people than the daily news numbers show because hardly anyone is being tested. Also, a lot of people get it, and they are just fine. If I get it, I will likely be okay. But, that’s not a guarantee. There is a risk. People say the mainstream media is collectively sensationalizing this. Well, of course they are, in their way. Of course they’re playing it up for ratings, that’s what they do.  

But I don’t think they are making it sound worse than it is. I was watching a news broadcast and they said that eighty-six percent of the people under fifty who died of COVID-19 had an underlying health condition such as an autoimmune disorder, obesity, diabetes, high-blood pressure, asthma, or being a smoker. Those are all pretty common conditions. That’s a lot of at-risk people. Eighty-six percent of those under fifty who died had an underlying health condition. That’s what they did say. But what they didn’t say, and what I heard was this: Fourteen percent of the people under fifty who died of COVID-19 did NOT have an underlying health condition. That sounds fucking scary.  Yes, that is still a small number. Most of the people who die from COVID-19 are over eighty years of age. So, the percentage of people who died who are under fifty is low, and it’s fourteen percent of that number … but still. That’s otherwise healthy young people with no underlying health conditions who are dying. Greater risk for the elderly doesn’t equal zero risk for the young. That’s not how math or statistics work.  

I’ve watched videos online from real people. Nurses on the front lines in the hardest hit cities describing chaotic and dangerous conditions in hospitals. People who got the disease pretty badly, but recovered, recounting their terrifying near-death experiences. Yes, a lot of people have a sniffle and a cough. Yes, some people remain asymptomatic throughout the life of their infection, remaining symptom free, but still allowing the virus to replicate in their bodies so they can spread it. But this thing just slaps the fuck out of some people, and sometimes kills them, for no reason. Not because they’re old, or sick, or have an otherwise compromised immune system, but they’re just simply unlucky. I mean, maybe there’s something we don’t know. Perhaps they all have something in common, some underlying factor that hasn’t been identified as a risk. That’s surely possible. But still — do you have it, this factor? Do I? 

But fear of getting infected isn’t the main reason to distance and hunker down.

We should stay locked down and we should try our best not to spread it because it’s extremely contagious, and there is a pretty large section of our society, who, for various reasons, really shouldn’t be put into battle with this virus. A lot of them don’t have a chance, and we, as a society, need to do the right fucking thing and keep this bug as far away from them as we can. And if caring about the sick and elderly is outside of your capacity, just know that you aren’t safe, either. It could kill you, too. Fourteen percent of the people under fifty who died from COVID-19 did not have an underlying medical condition or compromised immune system. I’m sure they all thought they would be fine. 

I have learned the following by reading articles written by experts in the field.

There are eight strains of SARS-CoV-2 circulating the globe right now that cause the disease COVID-19. No one strain is deadlier than another, they are all very similar to each other. SARS-CoV-2 is not likely to rapidly mutate and go airborne or get into the water supply. Its current method of transmission from human to human is so effective it has no immediate need to try to adapt or evolve. If and when it does need to evolve to try to bypass our eventual vaccine, it will take it a while. Coronavirus evolves, or mutates, at a slow rate, about four times slower than influenza.

I should be citing this stuff, but this is a blog, not a peer-reviewed paper. This isn’t shit I’ve discovered through testing and examination,  and I’m not trying to formulate my own hypothesis. I’m no expert in any of this, I’m just repeating shit I’ve found from articles that were well-sourced, and anyone can find them by Googling this stuff and seeing where I found it. But I digress, as I am wont to do.  Anyway, more science facts.

SARS-CoV-2 spreads from human to human in both large droplets and aerosol that exit the body during a cough, sneeze, panting, heavy breathing, etc. Any method that would allow moisture to escape the mouth on the breath. The virus can hang suspended in mist for up to three hours and remain active. The virus can live on paper and cardboard for up to 24 hours, and can live for up to 72 hours on plastic, stainless steel, and other smooth shiny surfaces.

So, on a relatively humid day, and, I know, how many of those are we going to see in mid-Spring, right? On a relatively humid day, an infected person sneezes. That infected aerosol can join with the water already in the air, and just float around ready to be breathed in for up to three hours. So, sure, stay six feet away, but if you move into a space someone else was just standing, you’re now breathing in what they just breathed out.

I don’t care who says what about masks.  I don’t need someone to explain to me how and why masks work. I get that the virus is small and can pass through very small openings and to be fully effective a mask would have to be rated to work against particles as small as the virus, which in this case is N-95. But I also understand that if you’re sick and you cough and you’re wearing a piece of cloth over your face, you’re going to greatly decrease the chances that you’re going to spread the virus. Yes, small aerosols will make it through, but a lot of the germs will be caught and never enter the atmosphere. So, yeah, masks are prudent. Any of us could have it, and we should try not to spread it in case we do.

I am lucky and I get to stay in my house. I don’t know what lies I’d be telling myself if I had to go out in the world every day like nothing has changed and do a thankless job. Everyone still out in the world and not practicing social distancing will probably get this. I may get this, despite my best efforts. Most of us will be okay. Some of us won’t.